Do you already see signs of a slowdown in demand, including canada telegram data for imports, against the backdrop of the weakening of the ruble and the decisions made on the monetary policy?
does not yet indicate a decrease in imports. But this is expected, since import deliveries come several months after the orders are placed. The slowdown in domestic demand, as well as the weakening of the exchange rate, which makes domestic goods more attractive compared to imported ones, will first be reflected in import orders, and in actual deliveries this will be significantly reflected over a three- to six-month horizon.
The Central Bank Chairperson previously
stated that there are signs of a slowdown in corporate lending. How sustainable is this trend?
The growth rate of credit — both retail and corporate
— was very high in July-August. There was a really big surge compared to the rates that had already accelerated in previous months. Compared to July and August, September will probably show somewhat more moderate dynamics. At the same time, retail lending in September continued to be supported by banks’ desire to issue loans and borrowers’ desire to take them out in anticipation of the next tightening of macroprudential measures. A more convincing slowdown in lending growth will probably manifest itself in the fourth quarter. In my product development process opinion, we ended September with rates lower than July-August, but the level of lending activity is still high relative to where it should be to ensure a sustainable trajectory of balanced growth and reduce inflation to 4%.
— The Central Bank and the government’s forecasts alb directory for GDP and inflation dynamics for 2023-2024 diverge. Do you communicate with the government in any way when preparing forecasts?
